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01/14/2012 - Honolulu, HI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jeff Maggert fired a six-under 64 Saturday to join Matt Every in the lead after three rounds of the Sony Open in Hawaii.
Every, who led by two after the second round, posted a two-under 68 and ended alongside Maggert at 12-under 198. They are two strokes clear of three other players at Waialae Country Club.
Every will go for his first PGA Tour title on Sunday. Maggert owns three PGA Tour titles, but hasn't won since the 2006 FedEx St. Jude Classic.
Charles Howell III and Johnson Wagner carded matching four-under 66s and were joined in third place at minus-10 by Brendon de Jonge (67).
Duffy Waldorf (66) and D.A. Points (64) are tied for sixth at nine-under 201.
Maggert, 47, started the day four off the lead and played five groups ahead of Every.
He tapped in a short birdie try on the fourth, then made four straight pars before draining a nine-footer for eagle on the par-five ninth to join Every in the lead.
Every was one-over through five holes at that point after dropping a shot on the second, but he regained control of the tournament before making the turn.
The 28-year-old bladed a wedge from off the green on the sixth and his ball rolled into the cup for birdie. He poured in a 29-foot birdie try at eight and followed with a two-putt birdie on the par-five ninth.
Every made the turn at 12-under, where he was two strokes clear of David Hearn, who dropped down the leaderboard with three bogeys early on the back nine.
Maggert birdied the 13th to get within two of the lead and sank a five-foot birdie putt on 16 to move to 11-under. He joined Every atop the leaderboard with a two-putt birdie on the par-five 18th.
"Obviously, my game has been pretty good this week. My short game has been solid and I've been putting very well," Maggert said in a televised interview. "I never lost the competitive edge, the game just wasn't there and I've had a couple injuries.
"I appreciate more of how good your health needs to be to compete out here. There's just so many good young players, and when you get to my age, you've got to take care of your body and just hope for the best."
Maggert owns a share of the 54-hole lead for the first time since the 2003 Masters.
Every parred the first six holes of the back nine but stumbled to a bogey at No. 16 after dropping his approach in a greenside bunker. After a par on 17, Every got up and down for birdie on the 18th to end alongside Maggert.
"First of all, it was weird starting off today because I didn't sleep real well last night, and then I just got off to a shaky start," Every said. "It could have gone the wrong way fast, but I was pretty proud of myself the way I hung in there. Two-under is nothing to be ashamed about on this course, especially on Saturday. I'm happy with it and really looking forward to having a chance to win tomorrow."
Steve Stricker is one 11 players tied for eighth place at eight-under 202 after shooting 67. If he can rally for the win, Stricker would be the first player since Ernie Els in 2003 to capture the season's first two events.
NOTES: Maggert has a piece of the 54-hole lead for the 10th time in his PGA Tour career, however he won just once in the previous nine times...Every shares the 54-hole lead for the first time...Since 80 players made the cut, 10 were cut after the third round, a group that included Chad Campbell and Tommy Gainey.
<< Rose leads Bulls past Raptors
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Derrick Rose scored a game-high 18 points and
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Carlos Boozer recorded 17 poi
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Westbrook filled the stat sheet with 21 points, eight rebounds and eight
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James H
<< Grizzlies take down Hornets
Memphis, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rudy Gay had 23 points and Marc Gasol scored 20
with 11 rebounds Saturday, leading the Memphis Grizzlies to a 108-99 victory
over the New Orleans Hornets on Saturday night.
Mike Conley added 17 points and
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Foxboro, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady tied
an NFL playoff record by throwing six touchdown passes in their AFC divisional
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Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kevin Pangos made up for a tough shooting
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Brady ties record, Pats rout Tebow's Broncos >>
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The magical run
Terry, Nowitzki shine as Mavs rout Kings >>
Dallas, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jason Terry scored 21 points and Dirk Nowitzki
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Jazz beat Nets, spoil Williams' return >>
Salt Lake City, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Deron Williams was met with a mix of
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Williams scored 16
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
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